Most buyers haven’t clocked it yet. Here’s what you need to know heading into Q2.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝘀𝗾𝘂𝗲𝗲𝘇𝗲
The UK corrugated sector has lost a significant chunk of converting capacity in the past 12 months:
→ Krystals Packaging (Lincoln & Ellesmere Port) entered administration in May 2025. Operations ceased overnight. Their corrugated sheet volumes flooded into an already tight market.
→ International Paper closed five former DS Smith sites post-acquisition, including Clay Cross and sheet plants in Plymouth, Newcastle, Sheerness, and Wellingborough. ~300 roles gone.
→ That’s just the UK picture. Across EMEA, IP shut 20 sites in 2025 with more under review. European mills supply the containerboard that UK converters depend on, so this tightens the whole chain.
The remaining factories (Smurfit Westrock, VPK, Saica, and the independents) are absorbing displaced demand. Result: longer lead times, less pricing flexibility.
𝗕𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴
Multiple rounds of price increases have come through over the past 12 months. Paper mills across Europe have pushed through hikes of 4-8% on packaging grades, driven by rising pulp, energy and labour costs, and UK converters have passed these on.
𝗘𝗣𝗥 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝘀 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿
First EPR invoices landed in October 2025, the start of a £1.4bn annual transfer to packaging producers. Paper/board: £196/tonne. Plastic: £423/tonne. From 2026, fees become modulated by recyclability, so packaging design now has a direct cost consequence.
For corrugated-heavy supply chains, this is relatively positive news. But it’s another variable to manage, and another reason for full visibility over packaging spend.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗤𝟮
If you’re relying on a packaging merchant to manage your corrugated supply:
→ Lead times are out. Your merchant may not have the allocation they once did.
→ Board prices have moved and are likely to move again. If you’re not locking in directly with manufacturers, you’re exposed.
→ The post-IP/DS Smith landscape is consolidating fast. Fewer players, less flexibility.
→ EPR compliance is no longer theoretical. It’s on the invoice.
The operators who’ll navigate this best have direct
